Karl's Blog

Innovation in the Department

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 12:00:00 -0500

When I started with the Air Force, I was told to push for change where it was needed-to move faster and enable the organization to move faster. The Air Force is a massive bureaucracy designed, in part, to slow change. It was frustrating to push my leadership and senior members to change things, get their pushback, and then be told by those same people to keep pushing.

The Hidden Cost of Playing It Safe

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 16:50:00 -0400

We rarely make opportunity cost explicit in the military. Because we never think about opportunity cost, risk aversion seems safe.

Opportunity cost - the lost potential gain from an alternative, when a different one is chosen.

Common sources:

Failure to delegate authority
Bureaucratic processes
Delay
Failure to innovate

Recently the Acquisition Transformation Strategy has instructed the military to deliver capabilities to operators earlier - to take on more acquisition risk, in order to buy down operational risk. It is not immediately clear how to judge acquisition risk vs operational risk. Opportunity cost is one way they may be compared. When senior leaders ask us to take acquisition risk to lower operational risk, opportunity cost is the missing yardstick.

An AI S-Curve

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:10:00 -0400

I find it fascinating to see how quickly, and in how many directions, practical AI ideas are multiplying right now. I installed OpenClaw recently and set up some daily prompts - show me interesting information, mine some RSS feeds I like - it has helped me learn new things each day… But I did not expect the breadth of different agent orchestration and LLM architectures it would present to me regularly.

Loonshots, Shadow Warriors, and Why Structure Beats Vibes

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0400

I just finished listening to Safi Bahcall’s Loonshots (thank you Libby) because friends kept telling me it was fantastic, and was fundamental to how they think about the innovation we’re all striving towards. They weren’t kidding. The book gave me language for dynamics I’d been managing by intuition, especially during my time with the Shadow Warriors, and showed me how they might maintain success indefinitely.

Bush–Vail Rules and the Artist/Soldier Divide

The Bush–Vail rules hit hard (https://www.infermuse.com/how-to-nurture-loonshots/). They basically say: safeguard your artists (loonshot teams), empower your soldiers (scale teams), and don’t mash them into one bureaucracy. That maps almost perfectly onto how I saw the Shadow Warriors vs. the acquisition command I was embedded in. The Shadow Warriors are artists building weird prototypes, and the acquisition folks are concentrated on keeping the lights on by getting the basics out into the field. I’d sensed mixing those two groups too tightly was dangerous, but Bahcall gave me the structural argument I’d been missing. On the acquisition side I regularly campaigned for less oversight, but the book reminded me there’s a point where “less bureaucracy” can undercut quality (although we can cut a ton of bureaucracy before we reach that point, currently).

Spec-Driven Development Might Be the Process Reset AI Needs

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 13:37:00 -0500

A recent Red Hat post about “specification-driven development” caught my interest. I’ve tried bolting AI onto my personal development practices. It doesn’t look like whispering an idea into an LLM then compiling the response… I can’t give the LLM my brain and have it replace all my work beyond the idea.

I have had success when providing a description of the end result, then working alongside an agent to refine and move towards that result iteratively. For me, personally, that’s a significantly different pattern for development than usual.

Brisket Recipe

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:00:00 -0500

Based on this recipe.

Meat: get a full brisket, a packer brisket, with both point and flat.

Seasoning: 1/4 Tbsp per pound salt, 1/4 Tbsp per pound black pepper, 1/8 Tbsp per pound garlic powder.

Starting smoker temp: 225℉

Desired end temp: 203℉

Start the smoker. Trim up the brisket so there’s about 1/4 inch of fat, max, on surfaces. Maybe cut the brisket in half to fit the smoker - either separate point from flat or just cut it in half. Put the seasoning in a shaker and shake it onto every exposed surface. Put it on the smoker with the point (fattier piece) on top, and the fatty sides on both up. Remember which temp probe is in which piece.

Meathead's Memphis Dust

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:00:00 -0500

This is a rub that I commonly use for pulled pork and ribs, but it’s good on poultry too.

Original recipe: Meathead’s Memphis Dust

Ingredients:

3/4 cup brown sugar
3/4 cup white sugar
1/2 cup paprika (smoked, I prefer, but any)
1/4 cup garlic powder
2 Tbsp black pepper
2 Tbsp ground ginger powder
2 Tbsp onion powder (I usually skip this)
1 Tbsp rosemary

Mix it all up in a bag.

Pulled Pork Recipe

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:00:00 -0500

Based on this recipe.

Salt: .5 tsp per pound

Rub: About 1/2 cup per 5 pounds Meathead’s Memphis Dust

Starting smoker temp: 225℉

Desired end temp: 203℉

Start the smoker. Salt and rub into a shaker, shake it onto every exposed surface of the butt. Put the butt in the smoker and let it go for a long time. Check it at least 12 hours before you want to eat, you may need to turn the smoker up to 275℉ to get it done on time. For a 15 lbs butt it regularly takes 18 hours even with turning up the smoker 6 halfway-through. Let it rest a little, then pull it.

Smoked Salmon Recipe

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 14:00:00 -0500

Based on this recipe

Meat: two approx. 2.5 lbs filets of of salmon (totalling 5 lbs), skin off.

Brine: 1 quart cool water, 1/3 cup sea salt, 1 cup brown sugar

Baste: maple syrup

Starting smoker temp: 120℉

Desired end temp: 130-140℉

The night before, slice each filet into thirds, and distribute between two ziploc bags of brine (half the brine in each bag). Place the brine in the fridge overnight.

Pork Butt November 2025

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 07 Nov 2025 12:00:00 -0500

11.19 lbs pork butt from the commissary, $2.02 per pound. I’ll use 2.75 Tbsp salt and 1.25 cups Memphis dust. Smoking it at 225℉ until it hits about 203℉.

6 Nov, 2310: meat is on the smoker.

7 Nov, 1330: meat is at 170℉. I’m turning the smoker up to 275℉.

1750: 201℉ - I’ll take it off soon.

1810: 203℉, perfect!

Pork butt was fantastic. Perhaps a little fattier than usual, but seems delicious.

In Memory of Clapton

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:00:00 -0500

I remember finding Clapton at the animal shelter near the San Antonio zoo. He was pacing around his small area, it looked like he had a lot of energy. I was looking for a dog who would be, in part, a running buddy. I took a couple dogs out for a walk that first day, but out of all of them Clapton struck me as “the one”.

I came back the following two days and took different dogs for a walk, each time also taking Clapton. At one point there were children playing in one of the dog play areas, and I decided to see how he’d do around them. They wanted to play with him and he was interested in playing with them, it seemed like he liked kids well enough, although he was generally indifferent about people.

Brisket October 2025

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Sat, 18 Oct 2025 16:00:00 -0500

16 lbs brisket from the Commissary, $4.55 per lb, 4 Tbsp salt, 4 Tbsp pepper, 2 Tbsp garlic powder.

17 Oct, 1025: brisket is on at 225℉.

18 Oct, 0800: brisket is to about 188℉.

1000: brisket is to about 188℉ still.

1145: still about 188℉, and I’d rather leave the smoker at 225℉ still, so I wrapped both.

1330: now it’s at 185℉!? I turned the temperature up to 275℉.

My International Relations Belief Framework

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:00:00 -0500

Working through a course on “International Security Studies”, I got absorbed in some reading about methods of analyzing international relations. I dove into a rabbit hole and am now able to put my own beliefs and worldview on this into concrete terms.

Ribs and Butts

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Sun, 31 Aug 2025 10:00:00 -0500

I haven’t made ribs since 2018, apparently. Let’s do ribs again! And a pork butt later. I have been wanting ribs for a while, but haven’t done em. The wife isn’t a fan of ribs. And - last time I did them it didn’t go so great. But I have learned from that time. This time I only bought one package of ribs from Costco, 3 racks. St Louis style, 11.41 lbs, $2.89 per pound. I’ll smoke them at 250℉ until they hit 203℉. I might have smoked them at 225℉ but I have a time limit today…

Turkey Day!

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:30:00 -0600

Turkey Day!

22 lbs turkey (that’s crazy). I spatchcocked it then took out the breastbone so it’s fully split in half. I brined each half in a gallon of water with a cup of salt and 3/4 cup brown sugar.

My herb butter was very roughly inspired by this site. My cooking plan was inspired by this site.

27 Nov 1930 - turkey is in the brine. I struggled to get this to cool down because it didn’t fit in the fridge, so I had it in the garage in a bucket surrounded by ice. Hours later everything cooled below 39℉. It makes me nervous, but we’ll cook it until it’s fully done.

Brisket! Salmon!

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 22:00:00 -0600

16 lbs brisket, 4 tbsp salt, 4 tbsp pepper, 2 tbsp garlic powder.

15 Nov 2200 - started the brisket at 225℉.

16 Nov 1220 - brisket is at about 180℉, turned it up to 260℉.

1220 - fish is drying after brining overnight.

1520 - brisket point is done at 208℉ (oops) so I took it off. Flat is only at 192℉, so I upped the temp to 275℉.

Serverless Analytics

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Sun, 05 May 2024 13:55:09 -0500

I’m annoyed by Google’s Analytics. It works great, but it’s heavy and overkill for my needs. Not to mention that it’s very privacy-intrusive. It’s not like I don’t give Google all my data already, but perhaps you don’t make that same choice, and you shouldn’t be forced into it simply by visiting my website.

I’ve been looking for a solution that lets me see what content folks are looking at and where they’re coming from, while being extremely cheap, and easy to maintain. All while reducing the privacy impact. I toyed with building something, but got lost in the “what is the cheapest way I can leverage AWS for this” trade-space.

Chief Disruption Officer

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Fri, 08 Mar 2024 08:00:00 -0600

“Disruption” is commonly thought of as a bad thing…

Disruption: disturbance or problems which interrupt an event, activity or process.

But to teams that yearn for change to their status-quo, like many in the 90th, disruptive innovation can be welcome.

Disruption: radical change to an existing industry or market due to technological innovation.

Disruptive innovation is something that many would not expect to exist inside the government, much less the Department of Defense. While we may occasionally drive innovative technological disruptions through investments, purchasing, or policy, it’s generally industry that is doing the innovative disruption.

Accountability

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Sun, 19 Nov 2023 22:00:00 -0500

This post documents some thoughts I have about accountability within my organization, and how I plan to speak to the team about accountability.

Accountability is vital in an organization. Within an organization members must be able to work together with trust. Trust often manifests as the belief that individuals will operate within a set of expectations. When behaviors deviate from those expectations, trust within a team is broken. When behavior deviates from expectations, accountability can bring team trust back into balance.

Almost everybody experienced the dreaded “team project” during high school. When the teacher picked the team members and you divvied up work you almost certainly had that one member, “Skip”, who did not pull their weight. Your team assigned them an entire section of writing, but the night before the project was due they didn’t turn anything in. They didn’t pick up their phone. They didn’t respond to email. You may have spent an all-nighter fixing the problem they caused just so your grade wouldn’t suffer.

Cyber Capability Test Philosophy

kc0bfv@notmet.net (Karl Sickendick) — Sun, 19 Nov 2023 13:45:00 -0500

I am fortunate enough to lead the 90th Cyberspace Operations Squadron, a unit that delivers software to enable cyberspace operations for combatant commands and the military services. Testing is a vital part of delivering software successfully, but there are many philosophies around how to do so. Our needs around testing are somewhat unique. This post describes how we need to shape our thinking for the future.

Today

Today we are in a fortunate position regarding test. We’ve got a history of delivering excellent capabilities that meet warfighter needs. We deliver them more quickly than anybody else, and our connections to operators mean they’re on target.